Bengals high stakes match vs Ravens a playoff game in November; Boyd critics, backup edge s

The Athletic has live coverage of Bengals vs Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Is this Thursdays matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens the biggest game in Amazon Prime football history?

The Athletic has live coverage of Bengals vs Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

Is this Thursday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens the biggest game in Amazon Prime football history?

Consider the stakes in the toughest division in football, two Super Bowl contenders, both coming off losses but still playing among the best in the league and two elite quarterbacks. Maybe it’s just the stink of Carolina PanthersChicago Bears still coming off my Roku remote, but I’d venture to say this tops the list.

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Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan put it this way: “This feels like a playoff game in November.”

In some ways, it will be. The path to a championship grows substantially tougher if the Bengals can’t pull this off. Consider the math.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Bengals can't mask offensive and defensive shortcomings in loss to Texans

Cincinnati would have five losses, be 0-3 in the division and 1-5 in the AFC. With the tiebreaker gone by virtue of a season sweep, the Bengals would be two-and-a-half games back of Baltimore in the AFC North with seven games to go. The idea of the Ravens sputtering to 4-3 the rest of the way and neither Pittsburgh nor Cleveland reaching 12 wins — all while the Bengals somehow win out — would be an extreme long shot.

If the Bengals lose Thursday, a third consecutive AFC North title essentially comes off the table. The AFC playoff picture will continue to be murky and any deep run would likely have to come away from Paycor Stadium.

This Week in Burrow

The two interceptions by Joe Burrow on Sunday were uncharacteristic. He rarely puts the ball in harm’s way late in games and also rarely throws red zone interceptions.

Pro Football Focus charted Burrow with four turnover-worthy plays, tied for a career high. He also had four in the opener against the Steelers last season. He only had five all season entering Sunday.

Yet, on an overthrow up the seam to Drew Sample and an easy interception in the end zone while Burrow scrambled, he helped the Texans stay in the lead.

The throws and decisions in a vacuum were overly aggressive. That was noted by Callahan, on Monday. They also weren’t decisions that drew criticism from the coaching staff considering time and place.

“Any time a bad throw happens you can argue the conservative route — but that’s where Joe was,” Callahan said. “He was running around making all kinds of plays. We are never going to take that away from him.”

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Burrow only threw one red zone interception all of last season, but has two already this year, both when trailing in the second half. The first came against Baltimore in Week 2 by Geno Stone.

“You don’t really second-guess him in those moments,” Callahan said of comeback mode. “He’s going to make a whole lot of right decisions more than he is wrong ones. You point out where it might have been different and you move on. His aggressiveness and playmaking is part of the reason why we were able to get back in that game. You live and die by it if that’s where you are at in the game, unfortunately, we were in that spot where we had to climb back and those interceptions happen sometimes.”

Texans intercept Burrow. Houston has the ball and the lead.

📺: #HOUvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGbyLL pic.twitter.com/Wwp2H1arMp

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023

Thought of the Week

Speaking of trying to make plays for the team, this feels like a good spot to address Tyler Boyd. I understand fan angst over a play not being made that could have won the game. The drop was a bad mistake. Boyd’s season has been up and down, he hasn’t been involved as much in specific game plans and his contract situation and age are what they are at this point. The writing has long been on the wall this is probably the last year of an incredible career in Cincinnati.

That said, the vitriol I saw directed at him over the play was so over the top. Boyd dropped two balls total over the previous two seasons. He caught eight passes for 117 yards, four of those for first downs. He drew a DPI for another first down. He made a special catch and run for 64 yards to even be in that position. He ran a teach-tape route to get open. Then, maybe the most sure-handed receiver in team history had a rare drop.

The idea this was some sign of his age and that he needs to be phased out of future game plans was stunning to see Monday. I wonder, like everyone, if the time comes and Charlie Jones plays well if he could see action in the slot down the line. But if you offered up the scenario of a 13-yard pass into the end zone to potentially win a game, there’s no question you want Boyd as the receiver on the play 10 of 10 times.

Burrow to Boyd for 64 yards! Bengals in business at the two-minute warning.

📺: #HOUvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGbyLL pic.twitter.com/IUt8qtyvVV

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023

Overly researched stat

With Sam Hubbard (ankle) and Trey Hendrickson (hyperextended knee) battling injuries and fighting uphill battles to play Thursday, the backup edge rushers take center stage in Baltimore.

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There will be a significant fall-off. That would be the case no matter how good the backups are.

Hendrickson ranks in the top five in nearly every pass-rushing metric this season.

Hubbard’s role in run defense doesn’t get the same publicity as others but is equally as valuable in coordinator Lou Anarumo’s system.

“He’s irreplaceable in that position,” Anarumo said.

One of the reasons to like the makeup of this roster to make a championship run this year was the ability to weather attrition through January. At the root of that was the investment in premium positions like edge and cornerback in recent years.

Now, first-round pick Myles Murphy, 2021 third-round pick Joseph Ossai and 2021 fourth-round pick Cam Sample need to make good on the investment.

The problem is to this point, they haven’t. And without Hendrickson, the lack of juice on the edge is notable.

Here’s the PFF ranking among 132 edge rushers with at least 45 pass-rush snaps in pass-rush win percentage and pass-rush productivity.

Bengals edge rusher production (2023)

PlayerWin%PRP

22.2% (5th)

12.3 (5th)

11.3% (61st)

5.6 (82nd)

10.1% (76th)

6.7 (68th)

8.1% (95th)

7.4 (59th)

4.5% (120th)

3.4 (119th)

Murphy, still only 21 years old, was drafted with a projection in mind for his elite athletic profile. Development would take time, but the Bengals need it to come along now.

Ossai seemed to be the prime candidate to take over in case of injury as he started to flash in the second half of last season, but he’s been surprisingly unable to gain opportunity, playing the fewest snaps among the group.

“Joseph has a high ceiling for himself,” Anarumo said. “I go back to what’s held him back as just his injuries, you know? He showed flashes yesterday of some good things for sure that you may not see on the TV or at the game, but, it’s still some consistency issues that we need to have him fix.”

Quotable

One more from Anarumo, this time on whether he will continue to rotate at safety with Nick Scott and Jordan Battle as well as cornerback with DJ Turner and Chidobe Awuzie:

“I would love to settle in on one guy,” he said with a frustrated acknowledgment of less-than-satisfactory play. “We’ll keep the rotation going as of now and then gotta evaluate things. We still have all of (Monday) at least.”

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As for why the rotation has kept going.

“I just feel like that both, the two of those guys give us the best chance as opposed to maybe just one settling in,” he said. “That’s kind of still how I feel today.”

The tone and messaging seem to suggest Anarumo is begging anybody in that group to step up, play markedly better and allow him to establish continuity.

Degenerate corner

Thursday will juxtapose conflicting trends in Baltimore. Let’s count them all, shall we?

First, the Bengals traveling to the Ravens for a prime-time game is already a mismatch.

Over the last 10 years, the Bengals rank dead last in win percentage on the road in prime time, a winless 0-14, a stat our friend Jay Morrison tweeted about Monday.

#Bengals at Ravens Thursday night.
Here is a list of teams ranked by worst winning percentages in road primetime games since 2013: pic.twitter.com/DaO2qXlaP3

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 13, 2023

On the flip side, no team has a better win percentage at home in prime time over the span than the Ravens at 12-2.

Even worse, this marks a return of the AFC North road prime-time game trend.

Since 2019, AFC North teams playing a division team on the road in prime time are 2-10. The Bengals are 0-4.

Since 2016, AFC North teams traveling in the division on the short week for a Thursday game are 0-5.

Degenerate corner, Part 2

The Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs at the Ravens. It marks only the second time this year they have been dogs, the first coming at San Francisco.

All of that is great news for Bengals fans. It sets off the Burrow underdog factor. Hard to argue with these facts.

Since the start of the 2021 season, Burrow as an underdog of two points or more is 12-0-1 against the spread. Far more impressive, the Bengals are 10-3 straight up in those games. Four of the victories have come by double digits, including the win at San Francisco two weeks ago.

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The only losses among that group were Green Bay in overtime in 2021, Super Bowl 56 against Los Angeles and last season’s Week 5 loss at Baltimore, 19-17.

The guy plays his best when doubted. Been the case his whole career.

(Photo: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

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